this post was submitted on 16 Feb 2024
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The thing I can't reconcile, is that Europe is talking about Russia becoming a new emergent threat. Preparing for a mobilized war with Russia.
And I understand that Russia has upped its armament production. But where is it going to get the manpower? If it's already chewed through half a million people in Ukraine, how on earth are they going to mount a campaign against Europe? Even if they have all the equipment
Russia is 146 million people. Even with a high average age, you can count on 20% young adults, and it leaves almost 30 million people able to fight, half men, so 15 millions. Half a million is dead after two years of conflict. There are 14.5 million left. At this pace, war can still go for 58 years.
If course it's not that easy. Russia avoid full mobilisation because it would cause political problems, and we don't know how long the population would support the war. I suspect it would take a very long time.
The problem for Russia is not the human resources, it's their formation. They need training. Or not apparently. It doesn't seem they care much.