this post was submitted on 26 Jun 2023
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Do I believe the telegraph?
Fair enough to wait for a better source, but I'm seeing this in other places too, citing "UK intelligence sources".
But, and this is confirmation bias speaking, this was exactly my guess when I first heard he'd turned around: "guess some family member that he cares about didn't make themselves quite scarce enough and Putins guys have them."
The only reason I don't believe this is, every well-informed Russian knows to hide their family and friends before doing something like this.
I read somewhere that Putin threatened the families of Wagner officers and not Prigozhin’s himself. More plausible IMO because the chain is as weak as its weakest links. Putin might have found just enough leverage.
That's logical, but it means Prigozhin didn't do a good enough job.
Basically he needed to make sure enough officers at the highest levels are protected. Then when it gets down to, say, anyone below a captain, there would be too many relatives for Putin to round up effectively.
Hard to strategise in the middle of a war :)