this post was submitted on 09 Aug 2023
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Thamel and others now reporting that it isn't happening. Pro rata increase only matters if the additions bring enough new revenue, etc., or if (like the B12) you have a reason to view growing the membership as worthwhile for its own sake.
I'm sure the academic prestige was factored in, but outweighed by the insane travel for Stanford and Cal and the pain in the ass travel for everybody else, and it's not like those two are bringing in NCAA tournament credits or CFP money.
If the two Bay schools weren't such snobs, they'd hold their noses, pitch 9 of 12 MWC teams to break their exit fees, then snag three AAC schools, maybe SMU, Rice, and either Tulane or USF. It wouldn't be a super impressive 16, but you take as many R1s (plus AFA) from the MWC as you can, take an elite research school in Rice, a highly regarded AAU school in Tulane (or a new one in a better market in USF), and an ambitious school in a good market like SMU, and it's not bad. Make sure that Boise is part of it, and you could maybe squeeze $10M-$15M out of Apple.
It's also not financially impossible like financing MWC defectors at $34M a pop, or joining the ACC.
So something like this:
PAC-4:
MWC because football/friendship:
MWC because undergrad reputation and/or R1 research:
AAC, 3 out of 4 of:
I'd say Cal, SU, WSU, OSU, SDSU, BSU, Fresno, CSU, UNLV, SMU, Rice, Tulane, and I'll throw UTSA into the mix (their stock is rising quick, they could be a good safety school/substitution) as a pretty kickass conference. They may not be flush with cash or anything, but they'll make a lot more than the AAC, MWC, or CUSA, and it would be fun as hell. I have doubts about Wy, AFA, UNM, USU, UNR, or USF making the cut. And Fresno seemed weirdly missing, considering they're the school with the most football pedigree (and maybe largest fanbase) in the MWC outside of BSU.
I was thinking strictly along the lines of which nine they could actually convince Cal and Stanford to live with, allowing for the original members in the Rockies who seem to be inclined to stay together and could crater a dissolution vote in the MWC. It's very clearly suboptimal from a football perspective, with Fresno in particular being left out because it would be a second CSU school and this one in the Northern half of the state, and Rice being included at the expense of many better programs, being the closest thing left to an academic blueblood.
This situation is not going to go great for the PAC-4, financially or competitively, and they need to figure their shit out sooner rather than later. The Bay schools hemming and hawing may have already fucked the four of them out of several more millions of dollars if they have to go indy and force the PNW Ag schools to join the MWC or AAC on normal shares. I do think if Fox finds some money for Cal and Stanford to beg their way into the B1G, they and ESPN might also find a few bucks for WSU and OSU to take partial shares in the B12, if for no other reason than to avoid litigation. 18 is awkward to select a top 2 for the CCG (probably just punt to the CFP committee), but three pods actually works out quite nicely for scheduling (5+2+2).