this post was submitted on 04 Aug 2023
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National Bank economist considers ‘housing affordability Armageddon’ (www.theglobeandmail.com)
submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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The Globe is going with a pretty click-bait-y title. But, I've seen others call for coordinating federal immigration numbers with infrastructure planning by municipalities and provinces. It looks like National Bank is on the same wavelength.

“The federal government’s decision to open the immigration floodgates during the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in a generation has created a record imbalance between housing supply and demand. According to Statistics Canada, the working-age population surged 238,000 in Q2. That was the largest quarterly increase on record and 6.8 standard deviations from the historical norm of 82,000 per quarter. Unfortunately, Canadian homebuilders can’t keep up with this influx. Housing starts for Q2 2023 stood at 62,000 units (or 247,000 annualized). At just 0.26, the ratio of housing starts to working-age population growth fell to a new and stands at less than half its historical average of 0.61 (the ratio is normally below 1 to account for the fact that there is more than one person per household). To meet demand, builders would need to break ground on 144,000 units per quarter (or 576K annualized), double the best performance ever!

At an absolute bare minimum, post-secondary institutions should show students have decent housing before visas are granted.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago

This is the best summary I could come up with:

“The federal government’s decision to open the immigration floodgates during the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in a generation has created a record imbalance between housing supply and demand.

As today’s Hot Chart shows, all 10 provinces are feeling the housing imbalance, with PE faring the worst with less than 0.1 starts per population growth.

As housing affordability pressures continue to mount across the country, we believe Ottawa should consider revising its immigration targets to allow supply to catch up with demand”

While Brooke Roach’s analysis of M’s sales driving initiatives and self-help profit drivers leads her to be Street high on FY2 EPS.”

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Citi analyst Maximilian Layton highlights the surprising resilience of global copper demand and sees a potential buying opportunity ahead,

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