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Doomed to repeat the cycle because they learned the wrong lesson if any lesson at all.
Says a lot that people would rather move from twitter-like to twitter-like than deal with Mastodon.
Yes that's the part about them failing to learn the lesson. The only difference between Twitter and Mastodon is that it's not centralized and there is no Central algorithm telling you what to think or who to look at. They want to be led like sheep. And they will be.
Bluesky will promote only what ultimately profits them. Should the trump administration threaten them with retaliation or regulation. They will fold and block/blackhole whomever they demand. It isn't an if. It's a when. The only question is how long it will take them to realize.
They might come after Lemmy and the fediverse too. But they won't willingly capitulate and lick boot.
Eh, I'm not too worried about it. Ultimately, it's just the same pattern that has happened since the dawn of civilization. In any city, there are places where people like to hang out and congregate. And they wax and wane in popularity with time. Even some place like a local pub has a lot of the same lock-in/network effect you get with the social media companies. What do you do if you live in a small town where the pub is the default meeting place, but the pub owner turns into an asshole? Well, there's different options, but ultimately it is the same problem as social media lock in.
And I'm not sure the federating really solves it. Let's say everyone moves to fediverse. In theory, it would be good if no instance had a lion's share, but that's not how these things actually develop; people tend to join whatever instance is currently the largest. And if lemmy.world becomes run by assholes, and if they in turn stop federating with other instances, isn't that now just reddit all over again?
At some point, I just don't think technical fixes are the real solution. The real solution is that people need to come to realize that these platforms are ephemeral, and that they need to always be ready to jump ship if a platform goes down the road of enshittification. This Twitter->Bluesky migration may represent ultimately a solution far more sustainable than the technical fixes embodied by the fediverse.
Respectfully, no, just no. Outside of tiny isolated communities. There has never been this much tight hegemonic control over thoughts and opinions. Only now it's not just small isolated towns. It's Nationwide if not global. LLMs making it exponentially worse already.
Federation isn't some newfangled thing that we are only just now trying for the first time either. The internet used to be Federated. The news and media used to be Federated. This is a return to form. Not a revolution or an experiment.
Before the mid 2000s. It was extremely unusual for the majority of people online or otherwise to visit a single news site or media source. Or at least sources all centrally controlled by the same group. Shaping opinions facts and ultimately reality.
Papers used to be owned by separate families and largely local. Competing in their local markets to be the most trusted and reliable. Local stations used to be local. Owned local, run local. Not all owned by clear channel or Sinclair. Even network affiliates were only "network" in terms of national news segments and syndicated/prime time entertainment programs. But starkly owned and operated locally. Their reputation their currency.
Shit it's creeping closer and closer to 30 years. It's entirely possible for you to be to young to remember or understand at this point. And that's no shade.
Not that federation or anything is an ultimate solution either. But would you rather have your reality and community controlled by the media. Or your media controlled by your community and hopefully reality.
A key part of federating, at least notionally, is ease of migration. The local pub locks their customers because there's no alternative. Twitter locks their users because their "followers" aren't on the new platform.
The fediverse facilitates migration, all the way down to redirecting from the previous account. Doesn't look like there's a way to automatically update followers' following, and there probably shouldn't be, but follower count (including all of the inactive and bot accounts) is one of the tools commercial social media use to scare people into staying.