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Who is this guy and how serious should we take this information? This is by far the highest number I've seen for Trump so far.
Their models have been really accurate for the last several election cycles. They’re part of fivethirtyeight.com
No, Nate is not part of 538 anymore. He now works for a crypto betting website partly owned by Peter Thiel.
I'll let you decide how neutral that makes him.
Peter Thiel, the same guy who sold Republicans on JD the couch fucker Vance
While that is also my pet name for JD, keep in mind it is aspirational, not historic.
He's a degen gambler who admits in his book he was gambling up to $10k a day while running 538... It never made him go "huh maybe I fucked my employees because I'm a degen gambler."
Boo, what does this mean for 538?
Nate is not with 538 anymore. Disney didn’t renew his contract. However, he got to keep the model that he developed and publishes it for his newsletter subscribers. 538 had to rebuild their model from scratch this year with G Elliot Morris.
Now Nate hosts the podcast Risky Business with Maria Konnikova. The psychologist who became a professional poker player while researching a book. It’s pretty good.